TY - JOUR
T1 - Using El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate data to improve food policy planning in Indonesia
AU - Naylor, Rosamond
AU - Falcon, Walter
AU - Wada, Nikolas
AU - Rochberg, Daniel
N1 - Funding Information:
* All authors are from the Center for Envi-ronmental Science and Policy, Institute for International Studies, Stanford Uni-versity. The authors wish to thank J. Lewis, J. Burnett, M. Evans, R. Shah, T. Fransen, M. Janiak and S. Becker for re-search assistance; D. Holmes, D. Dawe, S. Mink, F. Wiebe and N. Soeandi for data and information on Indonesian rainfall and cereal production; and D. Kennedy, R. Dunbar, D. Battisti, P. Vitousek, S. Schneider, A. Peck, J. McBride, C. P. Timmer and three anonymous referees for comments on earlier drafts. Funding for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation and the Stanford Offceifor Technology Licensing. The usual disclaimers apply.
Copyright:
Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2002
Y1 - 2002
N2 - Despite the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to Indonesian cereal production are not well developed. This study measures connections among sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and Indonesian rice and corn production from 1971 to 1998. Year-to-year August SSTA fluctuations explain about half the interannual variance in paddy production during the main (wet) season. These effects are cumulative for rice: during strong El Niño years, wet season production shortfalls are not made up subsequently. For corn, the cumulative area sown is actually higher in El Niño years than La Niña years. Indonesia's paddy production varies on average by 1.4 million tons for every 1°C change in August SSTAs. The paper illustrates how an SSTA model might assist policy makers with budgetary processes, and private sector cereal traders with framing production expectations.
AB - Despite the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to Indonesian cereal production are not well developed. This study measures connections among sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and Indonesian rice and corn production from 1971 to 1998. Year-to-year August SSTA fluctuations explain about half the interannual variance in paddy production during the main (wet) season. These effects are cumulative for rice: during strong El Niño years, wet season production shortfalls are not made up subsequently. For corn, the cumulative area sown is actually higher in El Niño years than La Niña years. Indonesia's paddy production varies on average by 1.4 million tons for every 1°C change in August SSTAs. The paper illustrates how an SSTA model might assist policy makers with budgetary processes, and private sector cereal traders with framing production expectations.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0036236008&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0036236008&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/000749102753620293
DO - 10.1080/000749102753620293
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0036236008
SN - 0007-4918
VL - 38
SP - 75
EP - 91
JO - Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies
JF - Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies
IS - 1
ER -