Using Aggregate Temporal Variation in Ad Awareness to Assess the Effects of the truth® Campaign on Youth and Young Adult Smoking Behavior

Mass media campaigns are one of the most effective population-level interventions for the prevention of tobacco use. However, accurately evaluating the effectiveness of these campaigns presents several challenges, particularly as campaign delivery becomes increasingly fractured across media platforms. There are a number of weaknesses associated with traditional, individual-level measures of campaign exposure in an increasingly socially networked, digital media ecosystem. This study evaluated the national truth® campaign using a novel method to measure campaign exposure through an aggregate weekly exogenous measure of awareness. We generated this exogenous measure from a continuous, cross-sectional tracking survey to predict intentions to smoke and current tobacco use among youth in the United States. Results from multi-level models indicated that weeks with aggregate campaign awareness greater than 65% were associated with lower odds of current tobacco use. We conclude with a discussion of implications and practical considerations for using this method for media campaign evaluation.