Trusted information sources in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic predict vaccination uptake over one year later

Introduction: COVID-19 vaccine uptake has been a major barrier to stopping the pandemic in many countries with vaccine access. This longitudinal study examined the capability to predict vaccine uptake from data collected early in the pandemic before vaccines were available. Methods: 493 US respondents completed online surveys both at baseline (March 2020) and wave 6 (June 2021), while 390 respondents completed baseline and wave 7 (November 2021) surveys. The baseline survey assessed trust in sources of COVID-19 information, social norms, perceived risk of COVID-19, skepticism about the pandemic, prevention behaviors, and conspiracy beliefs. Multivariable logistic models examined factors associated with the receipt of at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose at the two follow-ups. Results: In the adjusted model of vaccination uptake at wave 6, older age (aOR = 1.02, 95 %CI = 1.00–1.04) and greater income (aOR = 1.69, 95 %CI = 1.04–2.73) was associated with positive vaccination status. High trust in state health departments and mainstream news outlets at baseline were positively associated with vaccination at wave 6, while high trust in the Whitehouse (aOR = 0.42, 95 %CI = 0.24–0.74) and belief that China purposely spread the virus (aOR = 0.66, 95 %CI = 0.46–0.96) at baseline reduced the odds of vaccination. In the adjusted model of vaccination uptake at wave 7, increased age was associated with positive vaccination status, and Black race (compared to white) was associated with negative vaccination status. High trust in the CDC and mainstream news outlets at baseline were both associated with being vaccinated at wave 7, while high trust in the Whitehouse (aOR = 0.24, 95 %CI = 0.11–0.51) and belief that the virus was spread purposefully by China (aOR = 0.60, 95 %CI = 0.39–0.93) were negatively associated with vaccination. Conclusions: These findings indicated that vaccine uptake could be predicted over a year earlier. Trust in specific sources of COVID-19 information were strong predictors, suggesting that future pandemic preparedness plans should include forums for news media, public health officials, and diverse political leaders to meet and develop coherent plans to communicate to the public early in a pandemic so that antivaccine attitudes do not flourish and become reinforced.