The predictive validity of the hero scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends

Ron Z. Goetzel; Rachel Mosher Henke; Richele Benevent; Maryam J. Tabrizi; Karen B. Kent; Kristyn J. Smith; Enid Chung Roemer; Jessica Grossmeier; Shawn T. Mason; Daniel B. Gold; Steven P. Noeldner; David R. Anderson

doi:10.1097/JOM.0000000000000081

The predictive validity of the hero scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends

Ron Z. Goetzel, Rachel Mosher Henke, Richele Benevent, Maryam J. Tabrizi, Karen B. Kent, Kristyn J. Smith, Enid Chung Roemer, Jessica Grossmeier, Shawn T. Mason, Daniel B. Gold, Steven P. Noeldner, David R. Anderson

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

23 Scopus citations

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. METHODS: Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool′s ability to predict health risk trends. RESULTS: "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." CONCLUSIONS: The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	136-144
Number of pages	9
Journal	Journal of occupational and environmental medicine
Volume	56
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1097/JOM.0000000000000081
State	Published - Feb 2014
Externally published	Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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10.1097/JOM.0000000000000081

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Goetzel, R. Z., Henke, R. M., Benevent, R., Tabrizi, M. J., Kent, K. B., Smith, K. J., Roemer, E. C., Grossmeier, J., Mason, S. T., Gold, D. B., Noeldner, S. P., & Anderson, D. R. (2014). The predictive validity of the hero scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends. Journal of occupational and environmental medicine, 56(2), 136-144. https://doi.org/10.1097/JOM.0000000000000081

Goetzel, RZ, Henke, RM, Benevent, R, Tabrizi, MJ, Kent, KB, Smith, KJ, Roemer, EC, Grossmeier, J, Mason, ST, Gold, DB, Noeldner, SP & Anderson, DR 2014, 'The predictive validity of the hero scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends', Journal of occupational and environmental medicine, vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 136-144. https://doi.org/10.1097/JOM.0000000000000081

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abstract = "OBJECTIVE: To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. METHODS: Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into {"}high{"} versus {"}low{"} scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool′s ability to predict health risk trends. RESULTS: {"}High{"} scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with {"}low{"} scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring {"}low.{"} CONCLUSIONS: The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.",

author = "Goetzel, {Ron Z.} and Henke, {Rachel Mosher} and Richele Benevent and Tabrizi, {Maryam J.} and Kent, {Karen B.} and Smith, {Kristyn J.} and Roemer, {Enid Chung} and Jessica Grossmeier and Mason, {Shawn T.} and Gold, {Daniel B.} and Noeldner, {Steven P.} and Anderson, {David R.}",

year = "2014",

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doi = "10.1097/JOM.0000000000000081",

language = "English (US)",

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AU - Kent, Karen B.

AU - Smith, Kristyn J.

AU - Roemer, Enid Chung

AU - Grossmeier, Jessica

AU - Mason, Shawn T.

AU - Gold, Daniel B.

AU - Noeldner, Steven P.

AU - Anderson, David R.

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N2 - OBJECTIVE: To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. METHODS: Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool′s ability to predict health risk trends. RESULTS: "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." CONCLUSIONS: The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

AB - OBJECTIVE: To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. METHODS: Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool′s ability to predict health risk trends. RESULTS: "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." CONCLUSIONS: The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

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The predictive validity of the hero scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends

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