TY - JOUR
T1 - The incidence of asthma attributable to temperature variability
T2 - An ecological study based on 1990–2019 GBD data
AU - Xu, Qingsong
AU - Zhou, Qinfeng
AU - Chen, Junjun
AU - Li, Tong
AU - Ma, Junxiong
AU - Du, Runming
AU - Su, Mintao
AU - Li, Jing
AU - Xu, Ming
AU - Sun, Shengzhi
AU - Ma, Jing
AU - Ramanathan, Murugappan
AU - Zhang, Zhenyu
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2023/12/15
Y1 - 2023/12/15
N2 - Background: Asthma, the second leading cause of death from chronic respiratory diseases, is associated with climate change, especially temperature changes. It is currently unclear about the relationship between long-term temperature variability and the incidence of asthma on a global scale. Methods: We used asthma incidence, demographic and socioeconomic data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Results Database, and environmental and geographical statistics from TerraClimate between 1990 and 2019 to determine the association between maximum temperature variability and asthma incidence. We also predicted the incidence of heat-related asthma in the future (2020−2100) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: 126, 245, 370, and 585). Results: Between 1990 and 2019, the global median incidence of asthma was 402.0 per 100,000 with a higher incidence (median: 1380.3 per 100,000) in children under 10 years old. We found that every 1 °C increase in maximum temperature variability increased the risk of asthma globally by 5.0 %, and the effect was robust for individuals living in high-latitude areas or aged from 50 to 70 years. By 2100, the average incidence of asthma is estimated to be reduced by 95.55 %, 79.32 %, and 40.02 % under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP370 scenarios, respectively, compared to the SSP585 at latitudes >60°. Conclusion: Our study provides evidence that maximum temperature variability is associated with asthma incidence. These findings suggest that implementing stricter mitigation and adaptation strategies may be importment in reducing asthma cases caused by climate change.
AB - Background: Asthma, the second leading cause of death from chronic respiratory diseases, is associated with climate change, especially temperature changes. It is currently unclear about the relationship between long-term temperature variability and the incidence of asthma on a global scale. Methods: We used asthma incidence, demographic and socioeconomic data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Results Database, and environmental and geographical statistics from TerraClimate between 1990 and 2019 to determine the association between maximum temperature variability and asthma incidence. We also predicted the incidence of heat-related asthma in the future (2020−2100) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: 126, 245, 370, and 585). Results: Between 1990 and 2019, the global median incidence of asthma was 402.0 per 100,000 with a higher incidence (median: 1380.3 per 100,000) in children under 10 years old. We found that every 1 °C increase in maximum temperature variability increased the risk of asthma globally by 5.0 %, and the effect was robust for individuals living in high-latitude areas or aged from 50 to 70 years. By 2100, the average incidence of asthma is estimated to be reduced by 95.55 %, 79.32 %, and 40.02 % under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP370 scenarios, respectively, compared to the SSP585 at latitudes >60°. Conclusion: Our study provides evidence that maximum temperature variability is associated with asthma incidence. These findings suggest that implementing stricter mitigation and adaptation strategies may be importment in reducing asthma cases caused by climate change.
KW - Climate change
KW - Global warming
KW - Shared socioeconomic pathways
KW - Terra climate
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U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166726
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166726
M3 - Article
C2 - 37659541
AN - SCOPUS:85170531648
SN - 0048-9697
VL - 904
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
M1 - 166726
ER -