TY - JOUR
T1 - The Dynamics of Son Preference, Technology Diffusion, and Fertility Decline Underlying Distorted Sex Ratios at Birth
T2 - A Simulation Approach
AU - Kashyap, Ridhi
AU - Villavicencio, Francisco
N1 - Funding Information:
Open access funding provided by Max Planck Society. We are grateful to Francesco C. Billari for helpful comments throughout the project. Jason Hilton and André Grow shared valuable insights and helped with extensive discussions on sensitivity analysis of simulation models. We also benefited from feedback provided by Jakub Bijak, Sylvie Dubuc, Christiaan Monden, and participants at the Leuven ABM workshop in September 2014. We thank four anonymous reviewers for their useful suggestions. Part of this work was carried out while FV was at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2016, The Author(s).
PY - 2016/10/1
Y1 - 2016/10/1
N2 - We present a micro-founded simulation model that formalizes the “ready, willing, and able” framework, originally used to explain historical fertility decline, to the practice of prenatal sex selection. The model generates sex ratio at birth (SRB) distortions from the bottom up and attempts to quantify plausible levels, trends, and interactions of son preference, technology diffusion, and fertility decline that underpin SRB trajectories at the macro level. Calibrating our model for South Korea, we show how even as the proportion with a preference for sons was declining, SRB distortions emerged due to rapid diffusion of prenatal sex determination technology combined with small but growing propensities to abort at low birth parities. Simulations reveal that relatively low levels of son preference (about 20 % to 30 % wanting one son) can result in skewed SRB levels if technology diffuses early and steadily, and if fertility falls rapidly to encourage sex-selective abortion at low parities. Model sensitivity analysis highlights how the shape of sex ratio trajectories is particularly sensitive to the timing and speed of prenatal sex-determination technology diffusion. The maximum SRB levels reached in a population are influenced by how the readiness to abort rises as a function of the fertility decline.
AB - We present a micro-founded simulation model that formalizes the “ready, willing, and able” framework, originally used to explain historical fertility decline, to the practice of prenatal sex selection. The model generates sex ratio at birth (SRB) distortions from the bottom up and attempts to quantify plausible levels, trends, and interactions of son preference, technology diffusion, and fertility decline that underpin SRB trajectories at the macro level. Calibrating our model for South Korea, we show how even as the proportion with a preference for sons was declining, SRB distortions emerged due to rapid diffusion of prenatal sex determination technology combined with small but growing propensities to abort at low birth parities. Simulations reveal that relatively low levels of son preference (about 20 % to 30 % wanting one son) can result in skewed SRB levels if technology diffuses early and steadily, and if fertility falls rapidly to encourage sex-selective abortion at low parities. Model sensitivity analysis highlights how the shape of sex ratio trajectories is particularly sensitive to the timing and speed of prenatal sex-determination technology diffusion. The maximum SRB levels reached in a population are influenced by how the readiness to abort rises as a function of the fertility decline.
KW - Fertility decline
KW - Microsimulation
KW - Sex ratio at birth
KW - Sex-selective abortion
KW - Son preference
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U2 - 10.1007/s13524-016-0500-z
DO - 10.1007/s13524-016-0500-z
M3 - Article
C2 - 27638765
AN - SCOPUS:84988433785
SN - 0070-3370
VL - 53
SP - 1261
EP - 1281
JO - Demography
JF - Demography
IS - 5
ER -