The association between low-level viraemia and subsequent viral non-suppression among people living with HIV/AIDS on antiretroviral therapy in Uganda

Background Uganda's efforts to end the HIV epidemic by 2030 are threatened by the increasing number of PLHIV with low-level viraemia (LLV). We conducted a study to determine the prevalence of LLV and the association between LLV and subsequent viral non-suppression from 2016 to 2020 among PLHIV on ART in Uganda. Method This was a retrospective cohort study, using the national viral load (VL) program data from 2016 to 2020. LLV was defined as a VL result of at least 50 copies/ml, but less than 1,000 copies/ml. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with LLV, and cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine the association between LLV and viral non-suppression. Results A cohort of 17,783 PLHIV, of which 1,466 PLHIV (8.2%) had LLV and 16,317 (91.8%) had a non-detectable VL was retrospectively followed from 2016 to 2020. There were increasing numbers of PLHIV with LLV from 2.0% in 2016 to 8.6% in 2020; and LLV was associated with male sex, second line ART regimen and being of lower age. 32.5% of the PLHIV with LLV (476 out of 1,466 PLHIV) became non-suppressed, as compared to 7.7% of the PLHIV (1,254 out of 16,317 PLHIV) with a non-detectable viral load who became non-suppressed during the follow-up period. PLHIV with LLV had 4.1 times the hazard rate of developing viral non-suppression, as compared to PLHIV with a non-detectable VL (adjusted hazard ratio was 4.1, 95% CI: 3.7 to 4.7, p < 0.001). Conclusion Our study indicated that PLHIV with LLV increased from 2.0% in 2016 to 8.6% in 2020, and PLHIV with LLV had 4.1 times the hazard rate of developing viral non-suppression, as compared to PLHIV with a non-detectable VL. Hence the need to review the VL testing algorithm and also manage LLV in Uganda.