TY - JOUR
T1 - Stochastic simulation of the impact of antiretroviral therapy and HIV vaccines on HIV transmission; Rakai, Uganda
AU - Gray, Ronald H.
AU - Li, Xianbin
AU - Wawer, Maria J.
AU - Gange, Stephen J.
AU - Serwadda, David
AU - Sewankambo, Nelson K.
AU - Moore, Richard
AU - Wabwire-Mangen, Fred
AU - Lutalo, Tom
AU - Quinn, Thomas C.
PY - 2003/9/5
Y1 - 2003/9/5
N2 - Objective: To model the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV vaccines on HIV transmission using empirical data from studies in Rakai, Uganda. Design: A stochastic simulation model estimated HIV incidence, probabilities of transmission per coital act and the reproductive number (R0) with ART and HIV vaccines. Model inputs included Rakai data on HIV transmission probabilities per coital act by HIV viral load, age and gender, and sexual behaviors. The impacts of therapy were derived from US programs, and vaccine assumptions included preventive efficacies ranging from 25 to 75%. Component projection models estimated the numbers of HIV-infected persons over 20 years. Results: The model incidence [1.57/100 person years (PY)] closely fitted empirical data (1.5/100 PY). Simulations of ART using DHHS treatment guidelines, predicted declines in HIV incidence, but R0 remained > 1.0, and the numbers of HIV-positive persons did not change substantially over 20 years. Preventive vaccines with > 50% efficacy and > 50% population coverage could reduce R0 to < 1.0, and substantially reduce the number of HIV-infected persons over 20 years. Concurrent ART and a preventive vaccine can have substantial impact at lower levels of population coverage and would markedly reduce the HIV infected population over 20 years. However, behavioral disinhibition with increased numbers of sexual partners in either ART or vaccine recipients, increased HIV incidence and diminished intervention impact. Conclusion: ART alone cannot control the HIV epidemic in mature epidemics such as Rakai, and persons in need of therapy will increase over time. ART in combination with a low efficacy vaccine could control the epidemic, if behavioral disinhibition is prevented.
AB - Objective: To model the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV vaccines on HIV transmission using empirical data from studies in Rakai, Uganda. Design: A stochastic simulation model estimated HIV incidence, probabilities of transmission per coital act and the reproductive number (R0) with ART and HIV vaccines. Model inputs included Rakai data on HIV transmission probabilities per coital act by HIV viral load, age and gender, and sexual behaviors. The impacts of therapy were derived from US programs, and vaccine assumptions included preventive efficacies ranging from 25 to 75%. Component projection models estimated the numbers of HIV-infected persons over 20 years. Results: The model incidence [1.57/100 person years (PY)] closely fitted empirical data (1.5/100 PY). Simulations of ART using DHHS treatment guidelines, predicted declines in HIV incidence, but R0 remained > 1.0, and the numbers of HIV-positive persons did not change substantially over 20 years. Preventive vaccines with > 50% efficacy and > 50% population coverage could reduce R0 to < 1.0, and substantially reduce the number of HIV-infected persons over 20 years. Concurrent ART and a preventive vaccine can have substantial impact at lower levels of population coverage and would markedly reduce the HIV infected population over 20 years. However, behavioral disinhibition with increased numbers of sexual partners in either ART or vaccine recipients, increased HIV incidence and diminished intervention impact. Conclusion: ART alone cannot control the HIV epidemic in mature epidemics such as Rakai, and persons in need of therapy will increase over time. ART in combination with a low efficacy vaccine could control the epidemic, if behavioral disinhibition is prevented.
KW - Antiretroviral therapy
KW - HIV
KW - Rakai
KW - Stochastic simulation
KW - Vaccines
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U2 - 10.1097/00002030-200309050-00013
DO - 10.1097/00002030-200309050-00013
M3 - Article
C2 - 12960827
AN - SCOPUS:0041326856
SN - 0269-9370
VL - 17
SP - 1941
EP - 1951
JO - AIDS
JF - AIDS
IS - 13
ER -