Severity of Trachomatous Scarring among Adults in Trachoma-Endemic Amhara Region of Ethiopia

Trachomatous scarring has been shown to progress regardless of active ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, indicating that scarring drivers may be unrelated to ongoing transmission. Although scarring prevalence is commonly associated with older age and female sex, less is known about other potential contributors to its development. This study identified and assessed risk factors associated with scarring magnitude in a trachoma-endemic setting, utilizing a fivepoint photographic scale (S0-S4). During 2017 trachoma surveys of Amhara, Ethiopia, photographers captured left and right conjunctival images of adults (ages 15 years and older) from 10 districts. Subsequently, two graders independently assessed photographs for scarring, with discrepancies adjudicated by an expert grader. Scarring scores for 729 individuals were aggregated from the eye level to the participant level, excluding 17 participants because of poor photograph quality. Among those with scarring, most cases (20.4%) were severe (S4, comprising more than 90% of the tarsal conjunctiva) compared with the prevalence of moderate S3-A/B (11.2%), S2 (8.3%), and mild S1 (19.2%). The youngest group (ages 15-19 years) exhibited all scarring stages. Older participants (60 years and older) experienced a greater burden of severe scarring (S4 prevalence: 32.6%) than their younger (15-19 years) counterparts (6.2%). Multivariate ordinal logistic regression models indicated female sex, increasing age, and district-level trachomatous follicular-inflammation prevalence were significant predictors of scarring severity. Trachomatous scarring and its progression to trichiasis, may prove a barrier to meeting WHO timelines for trachoma elimination and will necessitate ongoing surveillance and interventions after elimination thresholds have been met.