Screening for the early detection of cancer- II. The impact of screening on the natural history of the disease

Arthur Albert; Paul M. Gertman; Thomas A. Louis; Shu ing Liu

doi:10.1016/0025-5564(78)90075-5

Screening for the early detection of cancer- II. The impact of screening on the natural history of the disease

Arthur Albert, Paul M. Gertman, Thomas A. Louis, Shu ing Liu

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

37 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this report we develop a model which describes the temporal evolution of the natural history of a chronic progressive disease such as cancer, in a population which is subjected to screening and "natural" demographic forces. Several new measures of merit are defined, in terms of which the salutory effects of screening can be ascertained quantitatively. A computer program has been written which permits exploitation of the model over a wide range of assumptions concerning the characteristics of the disease in question. We present results based upon a set of assumptions chosen to mimic the known epidemiologic characteristics of cervical cancer. We show that an intelligently designed screening program, which preferentially selects high-risk age strata for screening, convincingly outperforms a program which screens all ages over 30 annually.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	61-109
Number of pages	49
Journal	Mathematical Biosciences
Volume	40
Issue number	1-2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/0025-5564(78)90075-5
State	Published - Jul 1978
Externally published	Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Statistics and Probability
Modeling and Simulation
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
General Immunology and Microbiology
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Applied Mathematics

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10.1016/0025-5564(78)90075-5

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AU - Albert, Arthur

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AU - Louis, Thomas A.

AU - Liu, Shu ing

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AB - In this report we develop a model which describes the temporal evolution of the natural history of a chronic progressive disease such as cancer, in a population which is subjected to screening and "natural" demographic forces. Several new measures of merit are defined, in terms of which the salutory effects of screening can be ascertained quantitatively. A computer program has been written which permits exploitation of the model over a wide range of assumptions concerning the characteristics of the disease in question. We present results based upon a set of assumptions chosen to mimic the known epidemiologic characteristics of cervical cancer. We show that an intelligently designed screening program, which preferentially selects high-risk age strata for screening, convincingly outperforms a program which screens all ages over 30 annually.

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Screening for the early detection of cancer- II. The impact of screening on the natural history of the disease

Abstract

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