Role of Thigh Muscle Changes in Knee Osteoarthritis Outcomes: Osteoarthritis Initiative Data

Background: Longitudinal data on the association of quantitative thigh muscle MRI markers with knee osteoarthritis (KOA) outcomes are scarce. These associations are of clinical importance, with potential use for thigh muscle–directed disease-modifying interventions. Purpose: To measure KOA-associated longitudinal changes in MRI-derived muscle cross-sectional area (CSA) and adipose tissue and their association with downstream symptom worsening and knee replacement (KR). Materials and Methods: In a secondary analysis of the Osteoarthritis Initiative multicenter prospective cohort (February 2004 through October 2015), knees of participants with available good-quality thigh MRI scans at baseline and at least one follow-up visit were included and classified as with and without KOA according to baseline radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence grade of 2 or higher and matched for confounders with use of propensity score matching. An automated deep learning model for thigh MRI two-dimensional segmentation was developed and tested. Markers of muscle CSA and intramuscular adipose tissue (intra-MAT) were measured at baseline and 2nd- and 4th-year follow-up (period 1) and compared between knees with and without KOA by using linear mixed-effect regression models. Furthermore, in knees with KOA, the association of period 1 changes in muscle markers with risk of KR (Cox proportional hazards) and symptom worsening (mixed-effect models) during the 4th to 9th year (period 2) was evaluated. Results: This study included 4634 matched thighs (2317 with and 2317 without KOA) of 2344 participants (mean age, 62 years 6 9 [SD]; 1292 women). Compared with those without, knees with KOA had a decrease in quadriceps CSA (mean difference, 28.21 mm²/year; P = .004) and an increase in quadriceps intra-MAT (1.98 mm²/year; P = .007). Decreased CSA and increased intra-MAT of quadriceps during period 1 was predictive of downstream (period 2) KOA symptom worsening (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index total score: odds ratio, 0.24 [negative association] [P , .001] and 1.38 [P = .012], respectively). Quadriceps CSA changes were negatively associated with higher future KR risk (hazard ratio, 0.70; P , .001). Conclusion: Knee osteoarthritis was associated with longitudinal MRI-derived decreased quadriceps cross-sectional area and increased intramuscular adipose tissue. These potentially modifiable risk factors were predictive of downstream symptom worsening and knee replacement.