Reading the markets: Forecasting public opinion of political candidates by news analysis

Kevin Lerman, Ari Gilder, Mark Dredze, Fernando Pereira

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Media reporting shapes public opinion which can in turn influence events, particularly in political elections, in which candidates both respond to and shape public perception of their campaigns. We use computational linguistics to automatically predict the impact of news on public perception of political candidates. Our system uses daily newspaper articles to predict shifts in public opinion as reflected in prediction markets. We discuss various types of features designed for this problem. The news system improves market prediction over baseline market systems.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationColing 2008 - 22nd International Conference on Computational Linguistics, Proceedings of the Conference
Pages473-480
Number of pages8
StatePublished - 2008
Externally publishedYes
Event22nd International Conference on Computational Linguistics, Coling 2008 - Manchester, United Kingdom
Duration: Aug 18 2008Aug 22 2008

Publication series

NameColing 2008 - 22nd International Conference on Computational Linguistics, Proceedings of the Conference
Volume1

Conference

Conference22nd International Conference on Computational Linguistics, Coling 2008
Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
CityManchester
Period8/18/088/22/08

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Language and Linguistics
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics
  • Linguistics and Language

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