TY - JOUR
T1 - Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis of HIV prevention
T2 - Comparing a Bayesian approach with traditional deterministic sensitivity analysis
AU - Johnson-Masotti, Ana P.
AU - Laud, Purushottam W.
AU - Hoffmann, Raymond G.
AU - Hayat, Matthew J.
AU - Pinkerton, Steven D.
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2017 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2001/8
Y1 - 2001/8
N2 - In cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is used to measure economic efficiency of a new intervention, relative to an existing one. However, costs and effects are seldom known with certainty. Uncertainty arises from two main sources: uncertainty regarding correct values of intervention-related parameters and uncertainty associated with sampling variation. Recently, attention has focused on Bayesian techniques for quantifying uncertainty. We computed the Bayesian-based 95% credible interval estimates of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of several related HIV prevention interventions and compared these results with univariate sensitivity analyses. The conclusions were comparable, even though the probabilistic technique provided additional information.
AB - In cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is used to measure economic efficiency of a new intervention, relative to an existing one. However, costs and effects are seldom known with certainty. Uncertainty arises from two main sources: uncertainty regarding correct values of intervention-related parameters and uncertainty associated with sampling variation. Recently, attention has focused on Bayesian techniques for quantifying uncertainty. We computed the Bayesian-based 95% credible interval estimates of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of several related HIV prevention interventions and compared these results with univariate sensitivity analyses. The conclusions were comparable, even though the probabilistic technique provided additional information.
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U2 - 10.1177/0193841X0102500404
DO - 10.1177/0193841X0102500404
M3 - Article
C2 - 11480309
AN - SCOPUS:0035432898
SN - 0193-841X
VL - 25
SP - 474
EP - 502
JO - Evaluation Review
JF - Evaluation Review
IS - 4
ER -