Preoperative variables predict persistent type 2 endoleak after endovascular aneurysm repair

Objective: Persistent type 2 endoleaks (PT2, present ≥6 months) after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) are associated with adverse outcomes. This study evaluated the preoperative risk factors and natural history of PT2 in order to define a population at high risk. Methods: From January 1999 to December 2007, 595 of 832 EVAR patients had long-term computed tomography follow-up and comprised the study cohort. Preoperative anatomic and clinical variables were correlated with PT2 using Cox regression. Composite hazard ratios (HRs) were constructed with clusters of high-risk preoperative variables. Primary end points, including spontaneous resolution, sac enlargement >5 mm, and freedom from reintervention, were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results: There were 136 PT2 patients (23%) with a median follow-up of 34.8 months (range, 6.4-121.2 months). Positive predictive factors included patent inferior mesenteric artery (IMA; HR, 4.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.62-9.90; P = .003), increasing number of patent lumbar arteries (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.10-1.41; P = .0006), increasing age (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06; P = .005), and increasing luminal diameter on CT-contrast opacified lumen (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05; P = .0001). During follow-up, spontaneous PT2 resolution occurred in 34 patients (25%), sac diameter remained stable in 63 (46%), and rupture occurred in 2 (1.5%). Kaplan-Meier analysis estimated that 35.2% ± 5.6% (95% CI, 23.8%-46.2%) of PT2 resolve spontaneously at 5 years after the index procedure. Freedom from sac enlargement >5 mm was 54.6% ± 7.2% (95% CI, 40.6%-69.4%) at 5 years. Fifty-nine reinterventions were performed in 39 patients with PT2. Freedom from reintervention was 67.3% ± 5.0% (95% CI, 57.0%-77.0%) at 5 years. The combination of a patent IMA and one risk factor of more than six patent lumbar arteries, maximum luminal diameter >30 mm, or age >70 years increased the odds of PT2 approximately ninefold. The combination of a patent IMA and any two risk factors increased the odds of PT2 approximately 18-fold. Conclusions: Several readily identifiable preoperative variables are associated with PT2 whose natural history was benign in but 35% of patients. On the basis of the composite high-risk HRs, there is accordingly a cohort of patients in whom perioperative interventions to preclude PT2 should be considered.