TY - JOUR
T1 - Preoperative Risk Score and Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes after Hepatectomy for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma
AU - Sasaki, Kazunari
AU - Margonis, Georgios A.
AU - Andreatos, Nikolaos
AU - Bagante, Fabio
AU - Weiss, Matthew
AU - Barbon, Carlotta
AU - Popescu, Irinel
AU - Marques, Hugo P.
AU - Aldrighetti, Luca
AU - Maithel, Shishir K.
AU - Pulitano, Carlo
AU - Bauer, Todd W.
AU - Shen, Feng
AU - Poultsides, George A.
AU - Soubrane, Oliver
AU - Martel, Guillaume
AU - Koerkamp, B. Groot
AU - Guglielmi, Alfredo
AU - Itaru, Endo
AU - Aucejo, Federico N.
AU - Pawlik, Timothy M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 American College of Surgeons
PY - 2018/4
Y1 - 2018/4
N2 - Background: Accurate prediction of prognosis for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains a challenge. We sought to define a preoperative risk tool to predict long-term survival after resection of ICC. Study Design: Patients who underwent hepatectomy for ICC at 1 of 16 major hepatobiliary centers between 1990 and 2015 were identified. Clinicopathologic data were analyzed and a prognostic model was developed based on the regression β-coefficients on data in training set. The model was subsequently assessed using a validation set. Results: Among 538 patients, most patients had a solitary tumor (median tumor number 1; interquartile range 1 to 2) and median tumor size was 5.7 cm (interquartile range 4.0 to 8.0 cm). Median and 5-year overall survival was 39.0 months and 39.0%, respectively. On multivariable analyses, preoperative factors associated with long-term survival included tumor size (hazard ratio [HR] 1.12; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.18), natural logarithm carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level (HR 1.33; 95% CI 1.22 to 1.45), albumin level (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.55 to 0.99), and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (HR 1.05; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.09). A weighted composite prognostic score was constructed based on these factors: [9 + (1.12 × tumor size) + (2.81 × natural logarithm carbohydrate antigen 19-9) + (0.50 × neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio) + (−2.79 × albumin)]. The model demonstrated good performance in the testing (area under the curve 0.696) and validation (0.691) datasets. The model performed better than both the T categories (area under the curve 0.532) and the cumulative stage classifications in the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging manual, 8th edition (area under the curve 0.559). When assessing risk of death within 1 year of operation, a risk score ≥25 had a positive predictive value of 59.8% compared with a positive predictive value of 35.3% for American Joint Committee on Cancer staging manual, 8th edition T4 disease and 31.8% for stage IIIB disease. Conclusions: Postsurgical long-term outcomes could be predicted using a composite weighted scoring system based on preoperative clinical parameters. The preoperative risk model can be used to inform patient to provider conversations and expectations before operation.
AB - Background: Accurate prediction of prognosis for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains a challenge. We sought to define a preoperative risk tool to predict long-term survival after resection of ICC. Study Design: Patients who underwent hepatectomy for ICC at 1 of 16 major hepatobiliary centers between 1990 and 2015 were identified. Clinicopathologic data were analyzed and a prognostic model was developed based on the regression β-coefficients on data in training set. The model was subsequently assessed using a validation set. Results: Among 538 patients, most patients had a solitary tumor (median tumor number 1; interquartile range 1 to 2) and median tumor size was 5.7 cm (interquartile range 4.0 to 8.0 cm). Median and 5-year overall survival was 39.0 months and 39.0%, respectively. On multivariable analyses, preoperative factors associated with long-term survival included tumor size (hazard ratio [HR] 1.12; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.18), natural logarithm carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level (HR 1.33; 95% CI 1.22 to 1.45), albumin level (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.55 to 0.99), and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (HR 1.05; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.09). A weighted composite prognostic score was constructed based on these factors: [9 + (1.12 × tumor size) + (2.81 × natural logarithm carbohydrate antigen 19-9) + (0.50 × neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio) + (−2.79 × albumin)]. The model demonstrated good performance in the testing (area under the curve 0.696) and validation (0.691) datasets. The model performed better than both the T categories (area under the curve 0.532) and the cumulative stage classifications in the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging manual, 8th edition (area under the curve 0.559). When assessing risk of death within 1 year of operation, a risk score ≥25 had a positive predictive value of 59.8% compared with a positive predictive value of 35.3% for American Joint Committee on Cancer staging manual, 8th edition T4 disease and 31.8% for stage IIIB disease. Conclusions: Postsurgical long-term outcomes could be predicted using a composite weighted scoring system based on preoperative clinical parameters. The preoperative risk model can be used to inform patient to provider conversations and expectations before operation.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2017.12.011
DO - 10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2017.12.011
M3 - Article
C2 - 29274841
AN - SCOPUS:85040102655
SN - 1072-7515
VL - 226
SP - 393
EP - 403
JO - Journal of the American College of Surgeons
JF - Journal of the American College of Surgeons
IS - 4
ER -