Preoperative predictors of new-onset prolonged atrial fibrillation after surgical aortic valve replacement

Objective: Patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) are at risk of developing prolonged atrial fibrillation (AF) after surgery. Prophylactic interventions such as left atrial appendage amputation (LAAA) and pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) impose cost and operative risk, discouraging routine use. To guide such interventions, we investigated preoperative predictors of AF. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on patients undergoing SAVR between 2011 and 2017. Patients were excluded if they had a preoperative history of AF or underwent a LAAA or PVI. Baseline characteristics were compared between those who did and did not develop prolonged postoperative AF. Predictors of prolonged AF were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Results: Of 720 patients identified, 170 (25%) developed prolonged (beyond 30 days) AF. Compared with patients who did not develop AF, those who developed prolonged AF were older (70.1 vs 62.4 years, P <.001), had a greater incidence of hypertension (78% vs 61%, P <.001), and were less likely to smoke (16% vs 31%, P <.01). On multivariable regression, older age (odds ratio, 1.05; P <.01) and left atrial enlargement (odds ratio, 1.66; P =.04) were predictors of prolonged AF. In this high-risk cohort, the incidence of prolonged postoperative AF was 40%. Conclusions: Older age and left atrial enlargement identify a stratum of patients at high risk of developing prolonged postoperative AF after SAVR. Multicenter, prospective studies should investigate the value of prophylactic interventions such as LAAA, Cox maze, or PVI in these individuals to obviate the consideration of late anticoagulation.