Predicting long-term cognitive and neuropathological consequences of moderate to severe traumatic brain injury: Review and theoretical framework

Prognostic modeling in moderate to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) has historically focused primarily on the projection of crude outcomes such as the risk of mortality and disability. Initial work in this area has perpetuated the notion that prognosis after moderate to severe TBI can be measured as a single, static, and dichotomous outcome. However, more recent conceptualizations describe moderate to severe TBI as the initiation of a chronic disease state with high levels of inter-individual variability in terms of symptom manifestation and disease progression. Unfortunately, existing prognostic models provide limited insight into the extent of chronic cognitive and neurodegenerative changes experienced by moderate to severe TBI survivors. Though prior research has identified a variety of acute factors that appear to influence post-injury cognitive and neuropathological outcomes, an empirically supported framework for prognostic modeling of these injury-distal outcomes does not exist. The current review considers the literature on an expanded array of empirically supported predictors (both premorbid and injury-related) in association with long-term sequelae of moderate to severe TBI. We also provide a theoretical framework and statistical approach for prognostic modeling in moderate to severe TBI in order to unify efforts across research groups and facilitate important progress in this research area.