Predicting death over 8 years in a prospective cohort of HIV-infected women: The Women's Interagency HIV Study

Deborah R. Gustafson, Qiuhu Shi, Susan Holman, Howard Minkoff, Mardge H. Cohen, Michael W. Plankey, Richard Havlik, Anjali Sharma, Stephen Gange, Monica Gandhi, Joel Milam, Donald R. Hoover

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Scopus citations


Objectives Predicting mortality in middle-aged HIV-infected (HIV+) women on antiretroviral therapies (ART) is important for understanding the impact of HIV infection. Several health indices have been used to predict mortality in women with HIV infection. We evaluated: (1) an HIV biological index, Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS); (2) a physical index, Fried Frailty Index (FFI); and (3) a mental health index, Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression (CES-D). Proportional hazards regression analyses were used to predict death and included relevant covariates. Design Prospective, observational cohort. Setting Multicentre, across six sites in the USA. Participants 1385 multirace/ethnic ART-experienced HIV+ women in 2005. Primary and secondary outcomes All deaths, AIDS deaths and non-AIDS deaths up to ∼8 years from baseline. Results Included together in one model, VACS Index was the dominant, significant independent predictor of all deaths within 3 years (HR=2.20, 95% CI 1.83, 2.65, X2 =69.04, p<0.0001), and later than 3 years (HR=1.55, 95% CI 1.30, 1.84, X2 =23.88, p<0.0001); followed by FFI within 3 years (HR=2.06, 95% CI 1.19, 3.57, X2 =6.73, p=0.01) and later than 3 years (HR=2.43, 95% CI 1.58, 3.75, X2 =16.18, p=0.0001). CES-D score was not independently associated with mortality. Conclusions and relevance This is the first simultaneous evaluation of three common health indices in HIV+ adults. Indices reflecting physical and biological ageing were associated with death.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere013993
JournalBMJ open
Issue number6
StatePublished - Jun 1 2017


  • Ageing
  • Frailty
  • HCV
  • HIV

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Medicine


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