Patterns and kinetics of hepatocellular carcinoma relapse post-liver transplantation: oligorecurrence and role of local therapies

Background: Amongst patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) post-liver transplantation, systemic therapy options may be limited by immunosuppression or poor performance status. Thus, we aimed to assess the impact of metastasis-directed therapy to all sites of disease (MDT-All) in HCC patients with limited disease recurrence [i.e., oligorecurrence (oligoM1)] post-transplantation and characterize pre-transplant characteristics associated with oligoM1. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, patients at a single institution with recurrent HCC post-liver transplantation were identified. OligoM1 disease was defined as ≤3 lesions at recurrence, while polyrecurrent (polyM1) disease was defined as >3 lesions. Outcomes were compared in patients with oligoM1 disease by receipt of MDT-All. Regression analyses were used to identify predictors of polyM1 disease and characteristics associated with post-recurrence outcomes. Results: Forty-three patients with recurrent HCC post-liver transplantation from 2005–2022 were identified. Twenty-seven (63%) patients had oligoM1. Microvascular invasion was independently associated with polyM1 [odds ratio (OR): 14.64; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.48–144.77; P=0.022]. Elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥400 ng/mL [hazard ratio (HR): 2.44; 95% CI: 1.08, 5.52; P=0.033] at recurrence was independently associated with inferior overall survival (OS), while oligoM1 (HR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.21, 0.87; P=0.018) was independently associated with favorable OS. Amongst patients with oligoM1 who received MDT-All (n=15) median OS was 38.4 vs. 16.1 months for those who did not receive MDT-All (log-rank P=0.021). There was a non-significant improvement in polyprogression-free survival (polyPFS) (median 14.0 vs. 10.7 months, P=0.1) amongst oligoM1 patients who received MDT-All compared to those who did not. Conclusions: Receipt of MDT-All was associated with improved OS amongst patients with limited HCC disease recurrence following liver transplantation.