National, regional, and provincial disease burden attributed to Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b in children in China: Modelled estimates for 2010–17

Background: Vaccination against Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) is not included in China's national immunization programme. To inform China's immunization polices, we estimated annual national, regional, and provincial childhood mortality and morbidity attributable to pneumococcus and Hib in 2010–17. Methods: We estimated proportions of pneumonia and meningitis deaths and cases attributable to pneumococcus and Hib using evidence from vaccine clinical trials and surveillance studies of bacterial meningitis and pathogen-specific case fatality ratios (CFR). Then we applied the proportions to model provincial-level pneumonia cases and deaths, meningitis deaths and meningitis CFR in children aged 1–59 months, accounting for vaccine coverage. Non-pneumonia, non-meningitis (NPNM) invasive disease cases were derived by applying NPNM meningitis ratios to meningitis estimates. Findings: In 2010–17, annual pneumococcal deaths fell by 49% from 15 600 (uncertainty range: 10 800–17 300) to 8 000 (5 500–8 900), and Hib deaths fell by 56% from 6 500 (4 500–8 800) to 2 900 (2 000–3 900). Severe pneumococcal and Hib cases decreased by 16% to 218 200 (161 500–252 200) in 2017 and 29% to 49 900 (29 000–99 100). Estimated 2017 national three-dose coverage in private market was 1·3% for PCV and 33·4% for Hib vaccine among children aged 1–59 months. Provinces in the west region had the highest disease burden. Interpretation: Childhood mortality and morbidity attributable to pneumococcal and Hib has decreased in China, but still substantially varied by region and province. Higher vaccine coverage could further reduce disease burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.