Modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for failure of non-operative treatment of pediatric forearm fractures: Where can we do better?

Introduction: Distal third forearm fractures are common fractures in children. While outcomes are generally excellent, some patients fail initial non-operative management and require intervention. The purpose of this study is to identify independent risk factors associated with failure of closed reduction. Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of distal third forearm fractures in children treated with closed reduction and casting. Patients were divided into two cohorts—those who were successfully closed reduced and those who failed initial non-operative management. Demographic characteristics, cast type, cast index, radiographic fracture, soft tissue characteristics, and quality of reduction were analyzed between groups. Results: A total of 207 children treated for distal third forearm fractures were included for analysis. A total of 190 (91.8%) children maintained their reduction while 17 (8.2%) failed initial non-operative management. Modifiable risk factors associated with loss of reduction on univariate analysis included the use of a long arm cast (p = 0.003), increased post-reduction displacement (p = 0.02), and increased post-reduction angular deformity (p = 0.01). Non-modifiable risk factors included increased body mass index (p = 0.02), increased presenting fracture displacement (p = 0.002), and increased width of the soft tissue envelope at the fracture site (p = 0.0001). The use of long arm casts (13% vs 2%, odds ratio = 6.44) and soft tissue width (60.6 vs 50.4 mm, odds ratio = 1.1) remained significant risk factors for loss of reduction after multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Both larger soft tissue envelope at the site of the fracture and long arm cast immobilization are independently associated with an increased risk of failing initial closed reduction in distal third forearm fractures in the pediatric population. Level of evidence: level III Case Control Study.