TY - JOUR
T1 - Lessons from SARS-CoV-2 in India
T2 - A data-driven framework for pandemic resilience
AU - Salvatore, Maxwell
AU - Purkayastha, Soumik
AU - Ganapathi, Lakshmi
AU - Bhattacharyya, Rupam
AU - Kundu, Ritoban
AU - Zimmermann, Lauren
AU - Ray, Debashree
AU - Hazra, Aditi
AU - Kleinsasser, Michael
AU - Solomon, Sunil
AU - Subbaraman, Ramnath
AU - Mukherjee, Bhramar
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee
PY - 2022/6
Y1 - 2022/6
N2 - India experienced a massive surge in SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths during April to June 2021 despite having controlled the epidemic relatively well during 2020. Using counterfactual predictions from epidemiological disease transmission models, we produce evidence in support of how strengthening public health interventions early would have helped control transmission in the country and significantly reduced mortality during the second wave, even without harsh lockdowns. We argue that enhanced surveillance at district, state, and national levels and constant assessment of risk associated with increased transmission are critical for future pandemic responsiveness. Building on our retrospective analysis, we provide a tiered data-driven framework for timely escalation of future interventions as a tool for policy-makers.
AB - India experienced a massive surge in SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths during April to June 2021 despite having controlled the epidemic relatively well during 2020. Using counterfactual predictions from epidemiological disease transmission models, we produce evidence in support of how strengthening public health interventions early would have helped control transmission in the country and significantly reduced mortality during the second wave, even without harsh lockdowns. We argue that enhanced surveillance at district, state, and national levels and constant assessment of risk associated with increased transmission are critical for future pandemic responsiveness. Building on our retrospective analysis, we provide a tiered data-driven framework for timely escalation of future interventions as a tool for policy-makers.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85132337168&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85132337168&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.abp8621
DO - 10.1126/sciadv.abp8621
M3 - Article
C2 - 35714183
AN - SCOPUS:85132337168
SN - 2375-2548
VL - 8
JO - Science Advances
JF - Science Advances
IS - 24
M1 - eabp8621
ER -