TY - JOUR
T1 - Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022
T2 - A multi-model study
AU - Borchering, Rebecca K.
AU - Mullany, Luke C.
AU - Howerton, Emily
AU - Chinazzi, Matteo
AU - Smith, Claire P.
AU - Qin, Michelle
AU - Reich, Nicholas G.
AU - Contamin, Lucie
AU - Levander, John
AU - Kerr, Jessica
AU - Espino, J.
AU - Hochheiser, Harry
AU - Lovett, Kaitlin
AU - Kinsey, Matt
AU - Tallaksen, Kate
AU - Wilson, Shelby
AU - Shin, Lauren
AU - Lemaitre, Joseph C.
AU - Hulse, Juan Dent
AU - Kaminsky, Joshua
AU - Lee, Elizabeth C.
AU - Hill, Alison L.
AU - Davis, Jessica T.
AU - Mu, Kunpeng
AU - Xiong, Xinyue
AU - Pastore y Piontti, Ana
AU - Vespignani, Alessandro
AU - Srivastava, Ajitesh
AU - Porebski, Przemyslaw
AU - Venkatramanan, Srini
AU - Adiga, Aniruddha
AU - Lewis, Bryan
AU - Klahn, Brian
AU - Outten, Joseph
AU - Hurt, Benjamin
AU - Chen, Jiangzhuo
AU - Mortveit, Henning
AU - Wilson, Amanda
AU - Marathe, Madhav
AU - Hoops, Stefan
AU - Bhattacharya, Parantapa
AU - Machi, Dustin
AU - Chen, Shi
AU - Paul, Rajib
AU - Janies, Daniel
AU - Thill, Jean Claude
AU - Galanti, Marta
AU - Yamana, Teresa
AU - Pei, Sen
AU - Shaman, Jeffrey
AU - España, Guido
AU - Cavany, Sean
AU - Moore, Sean
AU - Perkins, Alex
AU - Healy, Jessica M.
AU - Slayton, Rachel B.
AU - Johansson, Michael A.
AU - Biggerstaff, Matthew
AU - Shea, Katriona
AU - Truelove, Shaun A.
AU - Runge, Michael C.
AU - Viboud, Cécile
AU - Lessler, Justin
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022
PY - 2023/1
Y1 - 2023/1
N2 - Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5–11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5–11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5–11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880–0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834–0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797–1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5–11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).
AB - Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5–11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5–11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5–11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880–0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834–0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797–1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5–11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).
KW - COVID-19
KW - Modeling
KW - SARS-CoV-2
KW - Scenario projection
KW - Vaccination
KW - Variant emergence
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U2 - 10.1016/j.lana.2022.100398
DO - 10.1016/j.lana.2022.100398
M3 - Article
C2 - 36437905
AN - SCOPUS:85145718038
SN - 2667-193X
VL - 17
JO - The Lancet Regional Health - Americas
JF - The Lancet Regional Health - Americas
M1 - 100398
ER -