TY - JOUR
T1 - Household Transmission Dynamics of Seasonal Human Coronaviruses
AU - Quandelacy, Talia M.
AU - Hitchings, Matt D.T.
AU - Lessler, Justin
AU - Read, Jonathan M.
AU - Vukotich, Charles
AU - Azman, Andrew S.
AU - Salje, Henrik
AU - Zimmer, Shanta
AU - Gao, Hongjiang
AU - Zheteyeva, Yenlik
AU - Uzicanin, Amra
AU - Cummings, Derek A.T.
N1 - Funding Information:
Financial support. This work was funded by a grant from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Cooperative Agreement 1 U01 CK000337-01; to D. A. T. C.). The UK Research and Innovation (Grant Number MR/V038613/1) provides support to J. M. R.
Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.
PY - 2023/5/1
Y1 - 2023/5/1
N2 - Background. Household transmission studies inform how viruses spread among close contacts, but few characterize household transmission of endemic coronaviruses. Methods. We used data collected from 223 households with school-age children participating in weekly disease surveillance over 2 respiratory virus seasons (December 2015 to May 2017), to describe clinical characteristics of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, HcoV-HKU1, HcoV-NL63, HcoV-OC43) infections, and community and household transmission probabilities using a chain-binomial model correcting for missing data from untested households. Results. Among 947 participants in 223 households, we observed 121 infections during the study, most commonly subtype HCoV-OC43. Higher proportions of infected children (<19 years) displayed influenza-like illness symptoms than infected adults (relative risk, 3.0; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.5–6.9). The estimated weekly household transmission probability was 9% (95% CrI, 6–13) and weekly community acquisition probability was 7% (95% CrI, 5–10). We found no evidence for differences in community or household transmission probabilities by age or symptom status. Simulations suggest that our study was underpowered to detect such differences. Conclusions. Our study highlights the need for large household studies to inform household transmission, the challenges in estimating household transmission probabilities from asymptomatic individuals, and implications for controlling endemic CoVs.
AB - Background. Household transmission studies inform how viruses spread among close contacts, but few characterize household transmission of endemic coronaviruses. Methods. We used data collected from 223 households with school-age children participating in weekly disease surveillance over 2 respiratory virus seasons (December 2015 to May 2017), to describe clinical characteristics of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, HcoV-HKU1, HcoV-NL63, HcoV-OC43) infections, and community and household transmission probabilities using a chain-binomial model correcting for missing data from untested households. Results. Among 947 participants in 223 households, we observed 121 infections during the study, most commonly subtype HCoV-OC43. Higher proportions of infected children (<19 years) displayed influenza-like illness symptoms than infected adults (relative risk, 3.0; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.5–6.9). The estimated weekly household transmission probability was 9% (95% CrI, 6–13) and weekly community acquisition probability was 7% (95% CrI, 5–10). We found no evidence for differences in community or household transmission probabilities by age or symptom status. Simulations suggest that our study was underpowered to detect such differences. Conclusions. Our study highlights the need for large household studies to inform household transmission, the challenges in estimating household transmission probabilities from asymptomatic individuals, and implications for controlling endemic CoVs.
KW - children
KW - coronaviruses
KW - household
KW - transmission
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85153985411&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85153985411&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/infdis/jiac436
DO - 10.1093/infdis/jiac436
M3 - Article
C2 - 36350773
AN - SCOPUS:85153985411
SN - 0022-1899
VL - 227
SP - 1104
EP - 1112
JO - Journal of Infectious Diseases
JF - Journal of Infectious Diseases
IS - 9
ER -