TY - JOUR
T1 - Has mortality in the United States returned to pre-pandemic levels? An analysis of provisional 2023 data
AU - Minhas, Abdul Mannan Khan
AU - Fudim, Marat
AU - Michos, Erin D.
AU - Abramov, Dmitry
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s). Journal of Internal Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Publication of The Journal of Internal Medicine.
PY - 2024/8
Y1 - 2024/8
N2 - Background: The COVID-19 pandemic, which started in 2020, resulted in greater all-cause mortality in 2020 and in subsequent years. Whether all-cause mortality remains elevated in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic numbers is unknown. Methods and results: The United States (US) Center for Disease Control Wide-Ranging, Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database was used to compare mortality rates between 2019 and provisional data for 2022 and 2023. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) for all-cause as well as top causes of mortality were collected. Mortality based on subgroups by sex, age, and ethnicity was also collected. All-cause AAMRs between 2018 and 2023 per 100,000 individuals were 723.6, 715.2, 835.4, 879.7, (provisionally) 798.8, and (provisionally) 738.3, respectively, with AAMRs in 2023 remaining above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Similar trends were noted in subgroups based on sex, ethnicity, and most age groups. Mortality attributed directly to COVID-19 peaked in 2021 as the 3rd leading cause of death and dropped to the 10th leading cause in 2023. Provisional mortality rate trends for 2023 suggest that rates for diseases of the heart increased during the pandemic but appear to have returned to or dipped below pre-pandemic levels. Conclusion: Provisional 2023 all-cause mortality rates in the US have decreased from the 2021 peak associated with the COVID-19 pandemic but remain above the pre-pandemic baseline. Mortality from some conditions, including diseases of the heart, appears to have recovered from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
AB - Background: The COVID-19 pandemic, which started in 2020, resulted in greater all-cause mortality in 2020 and in subsequent years. Whether all-cause mortality remains elevated in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic numbers is unknown. Methods and results: The United States (US) Center for Disease Control Wide-Ranging, Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database was used to compare mortality rates between 2019 and provisional data for 2022 and 2023. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) for all-cause as well as top causes of mortality were collected. Mortality based on subgroups by sex, age, and ethnicity was also collected. All-cause AAMRs between 2018 and 2023 per 100,000 individuals were 723.6, 715.2, 835.4, 879.7, (provisionally) 798.8, and (provisionally) 738.3, respectively, with AAMRs in 2023 remaining above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Similar trends were noted in subgroups based on sex, ethnicity, and most age groups. Mortality attributed directly to COVID-19 peaked in 2021 as the 3rd leading cause of death and dropped to the 10th leading cause in 2023. Provisional mortality rate trends for 2023 suggest that rates for diseases of the heart increased during the pandemic but appear to have returned to or dipped below pre-pandemic levels. Conclusion: Provisional 2023 all-cause mortality rates in the US have decreased from the 2021 peak associated with the COVID-19 pandemic but remain above the pre-pandemic baseline. Mortality from some conditions, including diseases of the heart, appears to have recovered from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
KW - cardiovascular mortality
KW - covid-19
KW - mortality
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U2 - 10.1111/joim.13811
DO - 10.1111/joim.13811
M3 - Article
C2 - 38829151
AN - SCOPUS:85194919314
SN - 0954-6820
VL - 296
SP - 168
EP - 176
JO - Journal of Internal Medicine
JF - Journal of Internal Medicine
IS - 2
ER -