Forecasting the economic value of an Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine

Bruce Y. Lee, Angela R. Wateska, Rachel R. Bailey, Julie H.Y. Tai, Kristina M. Bacon, Kenneth J. Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

41 Scopus citations


Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a growing public health concern, especially in Asia. A surge of EV71 cases in 2008 prompted authorities in China to go on national alert. While there is currently no treatment for EV71 infections, vaccines are under development. We developed a computer simulation model to determine the potential economic value of an EV71 vaccine for children (<5 years old) in China. Our results suggest that routine vaccination in China (EV71 infection incidence ≈0.04%) may be cost-effective when vaccine cost is $25 and efficacy ≥70% or cost is $10 and efficacy ≥50%. For populations with higher infection risk (≥0.4%), a $50 or $75 vaccine would be highly cost-effective even when vaccine efficacy is as low as 50%.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)7731-7736
Number of pages6
Issue number49
StatePublished - Nov 16 2010
Externally publishedYes


  • China
  • Computer simulation
  • Economics
  • Enterovirus 71
  • Vaccine

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Molecular Medicine
  • General Immunology and Microbiology
  • General Veterinary
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Infectious Diseases


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