TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating the future global dose demand for measles–rubella microarray patches
AU - Ko, Melissa
AU - Malvolti, Stefano
AU - Cherian, Thomas
AU - Mantel, Carsten
AU - Biellik, Robin
AU - Jarrahian, Courtney
AU - Menozzi-Arnaud, Marion
AU - Amorij, Jean Pierre
AU - Christiansen, Hans
AU - Papania, Mark J.
AU - Meltzer, Martin I.
AU - Masresha, Balcha Girma
AU - Pastor, Desiree
AU - Durrheim, David N.
AU - Giersing, Birgitte
AU - Hasso-Agopsowicz, Mateusz
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation grant to World Health Organization [INV-005318].
Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2023 Ko, Malvolti, Cherian, Mantel, Biellik, Jarrahian, Menozzi-Arnaud, Amorij, Christiansen, Papania, Meltzer, Masresha, Pastor, Durrheim, Giersing and Hasso-Agopsowicz.
PY - 2023/1/16
Y1 - 2023/1/16
N2 - Background: Progress toward measles and rubella (MR) elimination has stagnated as countries are unable to reach the required 95% vaccine coverage. Microarray patches (MAPs) are anticipated to offer significant programmatic advantages to needle and syringe (N/S) presentation and increase MR vaccination coverage. A demand forecast analysis of the programmatic doses required (PDR) could accelerate MR-MAP development by informing the size and return of the investment required to manufacture MAPs. Methods: Unconstrained global MR-MAP demand for 2030–2040 was estimated for three scenarios, for groups of countries with similar characteristics (archetypes), and four types of uses of MR-MAPs (use cases). The base scenario 1 assumed that MR-MAPs would replace a share of MR doses delivered by N/S, and that MAPs can reach a proportion of previously unimmunised populations. Scenario 2 assumed that MR-MAPs would be piloted in selected countries in each region of the World Health Organization (WHO); and scenario 3 explored introduction of MR-MAPs earlier in countries with the lowest measles vaccine coverage and highest MR disease burden. We conducted sensitivity analyses to measure the impact of data uncertainty. Results: For the base scenario (1), the estimated global PDR for MR-MAPs was forecasted at 30 million doses in 2030 and increased to 220 million doses by 2040. Compared to scenario 1, scenario 2 resulted in an overall decrease in PDR of 18%, and scenario 3 resulted in a 21% increase in PDR between 2030 and 2040. Sensitivity analyses revealed that assumptions around the anticipated reach or coverage of MR-MAPs, particularly in the hard-to-reach and MOV populations, and the market penetration of MR-MAPs significantly impacted the estimated PDR. Conclusions: Significant demand is expected for MR-MAPs between 2030 and 2040, however, efforts are required to address remaining data quality, uncertainties and gaps that underpin the assumptions in this analysis.
AB - Background: Progress toward measles and rubella (MR) elimination has stagnated as countries are unable to reach the required 95% vaccine coverage. Microarray patches (MAPs) are anticipated to offer significant programmatic advantages to needle and syringe (N/S) presentation and increase MR vaccination coverage. A demand forecast analysis of the programmatic doses required (PDR) could accelerate MR-MAP development by informing the size and return of the investment required to manufacture MAPs. Methods: Unconstrained global MR-MAP demand for 2030–2040 was estimated for three scenarios, for groups of countries with similar characteristics (archetypes), and four types of uses of MR-MAPs (use cases). The base scenario 1 assumed that MR-MAPs would replace a share of MR doses delivered by N/S, and that MAPs can reach a proportion of previously unimmunised populations. Scenario 2 assumed that MR-MAPs would be piloted in selected countries in each region of the World Health Organization (WHO); and scenario 3 explored introduction of MR-MAPs earlier in countries with the lowest measles vaccine coverage and highest MR disease burden. We conducted sensitivity analyses to measure the impact of data uncertainty. Results: For the base scenario (1), the estimated global PDR for MR-MAPs was forecasted at 30 million doses in 2030 and increased to 220 million doses by 2040. Compared to scenario 1, scenario 2 resulted in an overall decrease in PDR of 18%, and scenario 3 resulted in a 21% increase in PDR between 2030 and 2040. Sensitivity analyses revealed that assumptions around the anticipated reach or coverage of MR-MAPs, particularly in the hard-to-reach and MOV populations, and the market penetration of MR-MAPs significantly impacted the estimated PDR. Conclusions: Significant demand is expected for MR-MAPs between 2030 and 2040, however, efforts are required to address remaining data quality, uncertainties and gaps that underpin the assumptions in this analysis.
KW - demand and supply
KW - demand forecast
KW - measles
KW - microarray patch
KW - microneedle
KW - rubella
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U2 - 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1037157
DO - 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1037157
M3 - Article
C2 - 36726626
AN - SCOPUS:85147166413
SN - 2296-2565
VL - 10
JO - Frontiers in Public Health
JF - Frontiers in Public Health
M1 - 1037157
ER -