Estimating the benefit of an HIV-1 vaccine that reduces viral load set point

Swati B. Gupta, Lisa P. Jacobson, Joseph B. Margolick, Charles R. Rinaldo, John P. Phair, Beth D. Jamieson, Devan V. Mehrotra, Michael N. Robertson, Walter L. Straus

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

51 Scopus citations


Vaccines designed to induce cell-mediated immune responses against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 are being developed. Such vaccines are unlikely to provide sterilizing immunity but may be associated with reduced viral set points after infection. We modeled the potential impact of a vaccine that reduces viral set point after infection, using natural history data from 311 HIV-1 seroconverters. Log-normal parametric regression models were used to estimate the log median time to events of interest. Relative times were estimated for those with viral load set points of 30,000 copies/mL (reference group) versus those with lower viral set points. The time to key clinical events in the course of HIV-1 disease progression was significantly extended for those with viral set points 0.5-1.25 log10 copies/mL lower than the reference group. By quantifying the anticipated clinical benefits associated with a reduction in viral set point, these findings support the use of virologic end points in HIV-1 vaccine trials.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)546-550
Number of pages5
JournalJournal of Infectious Diseases
Issue number4
StatePublished - Feb 15 2007

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Immunology and Allergy
  • Infectious Diseases


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