TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating additional schooling and lifetime earning obtained from improved linear growth in lowand middle-income countries using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST)
AU - Tong, Hannah
AU - Kemp, Christopher G.
AU - Walker, Neff
N1 - Funding Information:
Funding: The publication costs for all supplement articles were funded by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Improving Measurement and Program Design; Grant number 127590). Authorship contributions: HT, CK, and NW – methodology development. HT – data retrieval and all analyses. HT, CK, and NW – drafting, revision, and approval of the manuscript. Competing interests: The authors completed the ICMJE Unified Competing Interest Form (available upon request from the corresponding author) and declare no conflicts of interest. Additional material Online Supplementary Document
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Background Policymakers seeking to prioritize the use of restricted financial resources need to understand the relative costs and benefits of interventions for improving nutritional status. Improved linear growth can lead to increased education attainment and improved economic productivity in lowand middle-income countries (LMICs), though these non-health-related benefits are not reflected in current long-term modelling efforts, including the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Our objective was to integrate the effects of improved linear growth on non-health related benefit into LiST by estimating subsequent gains in years of schooling and wage earnings. We then estimated the impacts of reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target for stunting in South Asian countries on lifetime productivity. Methods In the first step, we used LiST outputs to estimate the improved linear growth due to scaled-up nutrition interventions and used published estimates to quantify the education gain resulting from an increase in height for age z-score (HAZ). In the second step, we used published country-level estimates on economic returns to schooling to quantify the relative gains in wages that children born today will experience because of their additional education attainment in the future. In the last step, we used country-level data on wages to estimate the net present value of future earnings gained due to early childhood growth improvement per birth cohort. Results If South Asia countries reach the SDG target by 2025, an estimated 8.6 million years of schooling will be obtained by six birth cohorts of 2020 to 2025. These six birth cohorts will also gain an estimated US$64888 million in the present value term, at a 5% discount rate, in lifetime earnings. India has the largest expected gain in years of schooling (7367 years) and lifetime earnings (US$59390 million in present value terms, at a 5% discount rate). Conclusions Two non-health-related benefits of improved linear growth – additional years of schooling and lifetime earnings – are added in LiST. Together with LiST costing, users can now conduct both cost-effective and benefit-cost analyses. Using both analyses will provide more comprehensive insights into nutrition interventions’ relative costs and benefits.
AB - Background Policymakers seeking to prioritize the use of restricted financial resources need to understand the relative costs and benefits of interventions for improving nutritional status. Improved linear growth can lead to increased education attainment and improved economic productivity in lowand middle-income countries (LMICs), though these non-health-related benefits are not reflected in current long-term modelling efforts, including the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Our objective was to integrate the effects of improved linear growth on non-health related benefit into LiST by estimating subsequent gains in years of schooling and wage earnings. We then estimated the impacts of reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target for stunting in South Asian countries on lifetime productivity. Methods In the first step, we used LiST outputs to estimate the improved linear growth due to scaled-up nutrition interventions and used published estimates to quantify the education gain resulting from an increase in height for age z-score (HAZ). In the second step, we used published country-level estimates on economic returns to schooling to quantify the relative gains in wages that children born today will experience because of their additional education attainment in the future. In the last step, we used country-level data on wages to estimate the net present value of future earnings gained due to early childhood growth improvement per birth cohort. Results If South Asia countries reach the SDG target by 2025, an estimated 8.6 million years of schooling will be obtained by six birth cohorts of 2020 to 2025. These six birth cohorts will also gain an estimated US$64888 million in the present value term, at a 5% discount rate, in lifetime earnings. India has the largest expected gain in years of schooling (7367 years) and lifetime earnings (US$59390 million in present value terms, at a 5% discount rate). Conclusions Two non-health-related benefits of improved linear growth – additional years of schooling and lifetime earnings – are added in LiST. Together with LiST costing, users can now conduct both cost-effective and benefit-cost analyses. Using both analyses will provide more comprehensive insights into nutrition interventions’ relative costs and benefits.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85129900046&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85129900046&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.7189/JOGH.12.08004
DO - 10.7189/JOGH.12.08004
M3 - Article
C2 - 35392583
AN - SCOPUS:85129900046
SN - 2047-2978
VL - 12
JO - Journal of global health
JF - Journal of global health
M1 - 08004
ER -