Established Clinical Prediction Rules for Bleeding Had Mediocre Discrimination in Left Ventricular Assist Device Recipients

Left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) reduce mortality in patients with end-stage heart failure, but LVAD management is frequently complicated by bleeding. Bleeding prediction post-LVAD implantation is challenging as prediction rules for hemorrhage have not been rigorously studied in this population. We aimed to validate clinical prediction rules for bleeding, derived in the atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism populations, in an LVAD cohort. This was a retrospective cohort study of LVAD recipients at an academic center. The primary end-point was time to gastrointestinal bleed or intracranial hemorrhage after implant; the secondary end-point was time to any major hemorrhage after hospital discharge. Four hundred and eighteen patients received an LVAD (135 HeartMate II, 125 HeartMate 3, 158 HVAD) between November 2009 and January 2019. The primary end-point occurred in 169 (40.4%) patients with C-statistics ranging 0.55-0.58 (standard deviation [SD] 0.02 for all models). The secondary end-point occurred in 167 (40.0%) patients with C-statistics ranging 0.53-0.58 (SD 0.02 for all models). Modifying the age and liver function thresholds increased the C-statistic range to 0.56-0.60 for the primary and secondary end-points. In a sensitivity analysis of HeartMate 3 patients, prediction rules performed similarly. Existing prediction rules for major bleeding had mediocre discrimination in an LVAD cohort.