Do Work-Related Lost-Time Injuries Sustained Early in Employment Predict Multiple Lost-Time Injuries throughout Employment?

Objective: The aim of this study was to identify a simple surrogate to predict the future risk of multiple lost-time injuries. Method: Employees of an academic medical center who sustained 5,906 injuries were followed from 1994 to 2017 or 1,046,218 person years. Results: The odds ratio of having three or more lost-time injuries during their entire duration of employment was 2.12 (95% confidence interval: 1.60 to 2.79) for employees having their first lost-time injury within the first 6 months of employment versus those injured after that, controlling for demographics and employment duration. For each increasing year before the first lost-time injury, the probability of having three or more lost-time injuries decreased by 13%. Conclusions: Employment duration before the first lost-time injury may be used to predict future lost-time injuries without detailed information of underlying risk factors.