Abstract
Background. Heterogeneity in HIV microepidemics across US cities necessitates locally oriented, combination implementation strategies to prioritize resources. We calibrated and validated a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to establish a status quo treatment scenario, holding constant current levels of care for 6 US cities. Methods. Built off a comprehensive evidence synthesis, we adapted and extended a previously published model to replicate the transmission, progression, and clinical care for each microepidemic. We identified a common set of 17 calibration targets between 2012 and 2015 and used the Morris method to select the most influential parameters for calibration. We then applied the Nelder-Mead algorithm to iteratively calibrate the model to generate 2000 best-fitting parameter sets. Finally, model projections were internally validated with a series of robustness checks and externally validated against published estimates of HIV incidence, while the face validity of 25-year projections was assessed by a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). Results. We documented our process for model development, calibration, and validation to maximize its transparency and reproducibility. The projected outcomes demonstrated a good fit to calibration targets, with a mean goodness-of-fit ranging from 0.0174 (New York City [NYC]) to 0.0861 (Atlanta). Most of the incidence predictions were within the uncertainty range for 5 of the 6 cities (ranging from 21% [Miami] to 100% [NYC]), demonstrating good external validity. The face validity of the long-term projections was confirmed by our SAC, showing that the incidence would decrease or remain stable in Atlanta, Los Angeles, NYC, and Seattle while increasing in Baltimore and Miami. Discussion. This exercise provides a basis for assessing the incremental value of further investments in HIV combination implementation strategies tailored to urban HIV microepidemics.
Original language | English (US) |
---|---|
Pages (from-to) | 3-16 |
Number of pages | 14 |
Journal | Medical Decision Making |
Volume | 40 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Jan 1 2020 |
Keywords
- HIV/AIDS
- dynamic transmission model
- epidemiological projection
- model calibration
- model validation
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Health Policy
Access to Document
Other files and links
Fingerprint
Dive into the research topics of 'Development and Calibration of a Dynamic HIV Transmission Model for 6 US Cities'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Cite this
- APA
- Standard
- Harvard
- Vancouver
- Author
- BIBTEX
- RIS
In: Medical Decision Making, Vol. 40, No. 1, 01.01.2020, p. 3-16.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Development and Calibration of a Dynamic HIV Transmission Model for 6 US Cities
AU - Zang, Xiao
AU - Krebs, Emanuel
AU - Min, Jeong E.
AU - Pandya, Ankur
AU - Marshall, Brandon D.L.
AU - Schackman, Bruce R.
AU - Behrends, Czarina N.
AU - Feaster, Daniel J.
AU - Nosyk, Bohdan
AU - Behrends, Czarina N.
AU - Del Rio, Carlos
AU - Dombrowski, Julia
AU - Feaster, Daniel J.
AU - Gebo, Kelly
AU - Golden, Matthew
AU - Granich, Reuben
AU - Kerr, Thomas
AU - Kirk, Gregory
AU - Marshall, Brandon D.L.
AU - Mehta, Shruti H.
AU - Metsch, Lisa
AU - Montaner, Julio
AU - Schackman, Bruce R.
AU - Shoptaw, Steven
AU - Small, William
AU - Strathdee, Steffanie A.
N1 - Funding Information: Zang Xiao BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada Krebs Emanuel BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada Min Jeong E. BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada Pandya Ankur Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA Marshall Brandon D. L. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1132-2932 Schackman Bruce R. Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York City, NY, USA Behrends Czarina N. Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York City, NY, USA Feaster Daniel J. Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Leonard M. Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2513-3718 Nosyk Bohdan BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada Behrends Czarina N. PhD Del Rio Carlos MD Dombrowski Julia MD Feaster Daniel J PhD Gebo Kelly MD Golden Matthew MD Granich Reuben MD Kerr Thomas PhD Kirk Gregory PhD Marshall Brandon D. L. PhD Mehta Shruti H. PhD Metsch Lisa PhD Montaner Julio MD Nosyk Bohdan PhD Schackman Bruce R. PhD Shoptaw Steven PhD Small William PhD Strathdee Steffanie A. PhD on behalf of the Localized HIV Modeling Study Group Bohdan Nosyk, BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, St. Paul’s Hospital, 613-1081 Burrard Street, Vancouver, BC V6Z 1Y6, Canada ( bnosyk@cfenet.ubc.ca ). 12 2019 0272989X19889356 27 3 2019 22 10 2019 © The Author(s) 2019 2019 Society for Medical Decision Making Background. Heterogeneity in HIV microepidemics across US cities necessitates locally oriented, combination implementation strategies to prioritize resources. We calibrated and validated a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to establish a status quo treatment scenario, holding constant current levels of care for 6 US cities. Methods. Built off a comprehensive evidence synthesis, we adapted and extended a previously published model to replicate the transmission, progression, and clinical care for each microepidemic. We identified a common set of 17 calibration targets between 2012 and 2015 and used the Morris method to select the most influential parameters for calibration. We then applied the Nelder-Mead algorithm to iteratively calibrate the model to generate 2000 best-fitting parameter sets. Finally, model projections were internally validated with a series of robustness checks and externally validated against published estimates of HIV incidence, while the face validity of 25-year projections was assessed by a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). Results. We documented our process for model development, calibration, and validation to maximize its transparency and reproducibility. The projected outcomes demonstrated a good fit to calibration targets, with a mean goodness-of-fit ranging from 0.0174 (New York City [NYC]) to 0.0861 (Atlanta). Most of the incidence predictions were within the uncertainty range for 5 of the 6 cities (ranging from 21% [Miami] to 100% [NYC]), demonstrating good external validity. The face validity of the long-term projections was confirmed by our SAC, showing that the incidence would decrease or remain stable in Atlanta, Los Angeles, NYC, and Seattle while increasing in Baltimore and Miami. Discussion. This exercise provides a basis for assessing the incremental value of further investments in HIV combination implementation strategies tailored to urban HIV microepidemics. dynamic transmission model epidemiological projection HIV/AIDS model calibration model validation National Institute on Drug Abuse https://doi.org/10.13039/100000026 R01-DA-041747 edited-state corrected-proof typesetter ts1 We thank Benjamin Enns for his assistance in preparing the data for model analysis. We also acknowledge support from our scientific advisory committee for providing inputs and expertise in GoF weight determination and face validation. This research was enabled in part by support provided by WestGrid ( www.westgrid.ca ) and Compute Canada ( www.computecanada.ca ). The Localized HIV Modeling Study Group is composed of: Czarina N. Behrends, PhD, Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College Carlos Del Rio, MD, Hubert Department of Global Health, Emory Center for AIDS Research, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University Julia Dombrowski, MD, primary with Department of Medicine, Division of Allergy & Infectious Disease, adjunct in Epidemiology, University of Washington Daniel J Feaster, PhD, Center for Family Studies, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Leonard M. Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami Kelly Gebo, MD, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Matthew Golden, MD, primary with Department of Medicine, Division of Allergy & Infectious Disease, adjunct in Epidemiology, University of Washington Reuben Granich, MD, International Association of Providers of AIDS Care Thomas Kerr, PhD, British Columbia Center on Substance Use; Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia Gregory Kirk, PhD, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Brandon D. L. Marshall, PhD, Department of Epidemiology, Brown School of Public Health, Rhode Island, United States Shruti H. Mehta, PhD, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Lisa Metsch, PhD, Department of Sociomedical Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University Julio Montaner, MD, BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS; Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia Bohdan Nosyk, PhD, BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS; Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University Bruce R. Schackman, PhD, Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College Steven Shoptaw, PhD, Centre for HIV Identification, Prevention and Treatment Services, School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles William Small, PhD, BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS; Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University Steffanie A. Strathdee, PhD, School of Medicine, University of California, San Diego The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was supported by a grant from the National Institutes of Health/National Institute on Drug Abuse (R01-DA-041747). The funder had no direct role in the conduct of the analysis or the decision to submit the article for publication. ORCID iDs Bruce R. Schackman https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1132-2932 Bohdan Nosyk https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2513-3718 Supplemental Material Supplementary material for this article is available on the Medical Decision Making Web site at http://journals.sagepub.com/home/mdm . Funding Information: We thank Benjamin Enns for his assistance in preparing the data for model analysis. We also acknowledge support from our scientific advisory committee for providing inputs and expertise in GoF weight determination and face validation. This research was enabled in part by support provided by WestGrid (www.westgrid.ca) and Compute Canada (www.computecanada.ca). The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was supported by a grant from the National Institutes of Health/National Institute on Drug Abuse (R01-DA-041747). The funder had no direct role in the conduct of the analysis or the decision to submit the article for publication. Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2019.
PY - 2020/1/1
Y1 - 2020/1/1
N2 - Background. Heterogeneity in HIV microepidemics across US cities necessitates locally oriented, combination implementation strategies to prioritize resources. We calibrated and validated a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to establish a status quo treatment scenario, holding constant current levels of care for 6 US cities. Methods. Built off a comprehensive evidence synthesis, we adapted and extended a previously published model to replicate the transmission, progression, and clinical care for each microepidemic. We identified a common set of 17 calibration targets between 2012 and 2015 and used the Morris method to select the most influential parameters for calibration. We then applied the Nelder-Mead algorithm to iteratively calibrate the model to generate 2000 best-fitting parameter sets. Finally, model projections were internally validated with a series of robustness checks and externally validated against published estimates of HIV incidence, while the face validity of 25-year projections was assessed by a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). Results. We documented our process for model development, calibration, and validation to maximize its transparency and reproducibility. The projected outcomes demonstrated a good fit to calibration targets, with a mean goodness-of-fit ranging from 0.0174 (New York City [NYC]) to 0.0861 (Atlanta). Most of the incidence predictions were within the uncertainty range for 5 of the 6 cities (ranging from 21% [Miami] to 100% [NYC]), demonstrating good external validity. The face validity of the long-term projections was confirmed by our SAC, showing that the incidence would decrease or remain stable in Atlanta, Los Angeles, NYC, and Seattle while increasing in Baltimore and Miami. Discussion. This exercise provides a basis for assessing the incremental value of further investments in HIV combination implementation strategies tailored to urban HIV microepidemics.
AB - Background. Heterogeneity in HIV microepidemics across US cities necessitates locally oriented, combination implementation strategies to prioritize resources. We calibrated and validated a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to establish a status quo treatment scenario, holding constant current levels of care for 6 US cities. Methods. Built off a comprehensive evidence synthesis, we adapted and extended a previously published model to replicate the transmission, progression, and clinical care for each microepidemic. We identified a common set of 17 calibration targets between 2012 and 2015 and used the Morris method to select the most influential parameters for calibration. We then applied the Nelder-Mead algorithm to iteratively calibrate the model to generate 2000 best-fitting parameter sets. Finally, model projections were internally validated with a series of robustness checks and externally validated against published estimates of HIV incidence, while the face validity of 25-year projections was assessed by a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). Results. We documented our process for model development, calibration, and validation to maximize its transparency and reproducibility. The projected outcomes demonstrated a good fit to calibration targets, with a mean goodness-of-fit ranging from 0.0174 (New York City [NYC]) to 0.0861 (Atlanta). Most of the incidence predictions were within the uncertainty range for 5 of the 6 cities (ranging from 21% [Miami] to 100% [NYC]), demonstrating good external validity. The face validity of the long-term projections was confirmed by our SAC, showing that the incidence would decrease or remain stable in Atlanta, Los Angeles, NYC, and Seattle while increasing in Baltimore and Miami. Discussion. This exercise provides a basis for assessing the incremental value of further investments in HIV combination implementation strategies tailored to urban HIV microepidemics.
KW - HIV/AIDS
KW - dynamic transmission model
KW - epidemiological projection
KW - model calibration
KW - model validation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85076436119&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85076436119&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/0272989X19889356
DO - 10.1177/0272989X19889356
M3 - Article
C2 - 31865849
AN - SCOPUS:85076436119
SN - 0272-989X
VL - 40
SP - 3
EP - 16
JO - Medical Decision Making
JF - Medical Decision Making
IS - 1
ER -