Confidence intervals for a binomial parameter after observing no successes

Thomas A. Louis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

80 Scopus citations


The easily computed, one-sided confidence interval for the binomial parameter provides the basis for an interesting classroom example of scientific thinking and its relationship to confidence intervals. The upper limit can be represented as the sample proportion from a number of “successes” in a future experiment of the same sample size. The upper limit reported by most people corresponds closely to that producing a 95 percent classical confidence interval and has a Bayesian interpretation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)154
Number of pages1
JournalAmerican Statistician
Issue number3
StatePublished - Aug 1981
Externally publishedYes


  • Bayesian inference
  • Binomial confidence interval
  • Subjective beliefs
  • The.05 level

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Mathematics(all)
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty


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