Conditional probability of long-term survival after liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: A multi-institutional analysis of 535 patients

Gaya Spolverato, Yuhree Kim, Aslam Ejaz, Sorin Alexandrescu, Hugo Marques, Luca Aldrighetti, T. Clark Gamblin, Carlo Pulitano, Todd W. Bauer, Feng Shen, Charbel Sandroussi, George Poultsides, Shishir K. Maithel, Timothy M. Pawlik

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

58 Scopus citations


IMPORTANCE: Whereas conventional actuarial overall survival (OS) estimates rely exclusively on static factors determined around the time of surgery, conditional survival (CS) estimates take into account the years that a patient has already survived. OBJECTIVE: To define the CS of patients following liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Between January1, 1990, and December 31, 2013, a total of 535 patients who underwent resection of ICC were identified from an international multi-institutional database. In this retrospective international study conducted from January to June 2014, clinicopathological characteristics, operative details, and long-term survival data were analyzed. Conditional survival estimates were calculated as the probability of survival for an additional 3 years. INTERVENTION: Resection of ICC. MAINOUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Overall survival and CS. RESULTS: While actuarial OS decreased over time from 39%at 3 yearsto 16% at8 years (P =.002), the 3-year CS (CS3) increased over time among those patients who survived. The CS3 at 5 years-the probability of surviving to postoperative year 8 after having already survived topostoperative year 5-was 65% compared with 8-year OS of 16% (P =.002). Factors that were associated with worse OS included larger tumor size (hazard ratio [HR], 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.05; P =.05), multifocal disease (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.19-1.86; P =.01), lymph node metastasis (HR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.67-2.93; P 3 exceeded the actuarial survival for all high-risk subgroups. For example, patients with lymph node metastasis had an actuarial OS of 11% at 6 years vs a CS3 of 49% at 3 years (Δ38%). Similarly, patients with vascular invasion had anactuarial OS of15% at 6 years compared witha CS3 of 50% at3 years (Δ35%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Conditional survival estimates may provide critical quantitative information about the changing probability of survival over time among patients undergoing liver resection for ICC. Therefore, such estimates can be of significant value to patients and health care professionals.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)538-545
Number of pages8
JournalJAMA Surgery
Issue number6
StatePublished - Jun 1 2015

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery
  • General Medicine


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