Clinical and arteriographic variables predictive of survival in coronary artery disease

Survival, subsequent myocardial infarction and current anginal status were determined for 90 nearly consecutive patients who underwent coronary arteriography at the Johns Hopkins Hospital between 1960 and 1967. All patients had at least one coronary arterial narrowing equal to or greater than 70 percent; 78 of 90 patients would be candidates for coronary bypass surgery by present criteria. Twenty-nine of the 78 surgically “suitable” patients died of cardiac causes; 7 of 49 survivors sustained an acute myocardial infarction (mean follow-up period 9.9 years). Patients with a 70 percent or greater narrowing proximal to the first septal branch of the left anterior descending coronary artery had a significantly greater mortality compared with patients with equivalent narrowing distal to the first septal branch or with patients without 70 percent or greater narrowing of the left anterior descending artery. The patients with a 70 percent or greater narrowing of the left anterior descending artery who died were those with a significant narrowing in at least one other major coronary artery. Multivariate stepwise discriminate function analysis of all clinical, electrocardiographic (except stress electrocardiographic) and arteriographic variables identified three independent predictors of mortality: (1) the simultaneous occurrence of a narrowing in left anterior descending and right coronary arteries, (2) prior myocardial infarction; and (3) 70 percent or greater narrowing proximal to the first anterior descending septal branch. When stress electrocardiographic findings were included, a “positive” stress electrocardiographic test was also an independent predictor of mortality.