Circulating metabolites, genetics and lifestyle factors in relation to future risk of type 2 diabetes

The human metabolome reflects complex metabolic states affected by genetic and environmental factors. However, metabolites associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk and their determinants remain insufficiently characterized. Here we integrated blood metabolomic, genomic and lifestyle data from up to 23,634 initially T2D-free participants from ten cohorts. Of 469 metabolites examined, 235 were associated with incident T2D during up to 26 years of follow-up, including 67 associations not previously reported across bile acid, lipid, carnitine, urea cycle and arginine/proline, glycine and histidine pathways. Further genetic analyses linked these metabolites to signaling pathways and clinical traits central to T2D pathophysiology, including insulin resistance, glucose/insulin response, ectopic fat deposition, energy/lipid regulation and liver function. Lifestyle factors—particularly physical activity, obesity and diet—explained greater variations in T2D-associated versus non-associated metabolites, with specific metabolites revealed as potential mediators. Finally, a 44-metabolite signature improved T2D risk prediction beyond conventional factors. These findings provide a foundation for understanding T2D mechanisms and may inform precision prevention targeting specific metabolic pathways.