Change in Fertility Intentions in the First Year of COVID-19: Evidence from Four Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Recent evidence suggests that women in high-income countries desired to delay or forgo childbearing due to COVID-19, yet there remains insufficient evidence of COVID-19's impact on fertility desires in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We examined how quantum and tempo of fertility intentions changed in the first year of COVID-19 and assessed the impact of economic insecurity and sociodemographic characteristics on these changes in SSA. We used longitudinal data collected among 14,053 women from Kenya, Burkina Faso, two provinces in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa and Kongo Central), and two states in Nigeria (Kano and Lagos). Descriptive analyses and logistic regression examined overall changes and economic and sociodemographic factors associated with quantum and tempo shifts. At the population-level, most women remained stable in their fertility intentions throughout the first year of COVID-19. Despite widespread income loss, few women reported that COVID-19 influenced their near-term childbearing intentions. However, among women who changed their intentions in Burkina Faso and Kenya, income loss was associated with transitions toward wanting to delay or limit childbearing, particularly among the poorest women. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for context when anticipating the consequences of public health emergencies on fertility.