TY - JOUR
T1 - Association between temperature variability and global meningitis incidence
AU - Chen, Junjun
AU - Jiao, Zhihua
AU - Liang, Zhisheng
AU - Ma, Junxiong
AU - Xu, Ming
AU - Biswal, Shyam
AU - Ramanathan, Murugappan
AU - Sun, Shengzhi
AU - Zhang, Zhenyu
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors
PY - 2023/1
Y1 - 2023/1
N2 - Background: Meningitis can cause devastating epidemics and is susceptible to climate change. It is unclear how temperature variability, an indicator of climate change, is associated with meningitis incidence. Methods: We used global meningitis incidence data along with meteorological and demographic data over 1990–2019 to identify the association between temperature variability and meningitis. We also employed future (2020–2100) climate data to predict meningitis incidence under different emission levels (SSPs: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). Results: We found that the mean temperature variability increased by almost 3 folds in the past 30 years. The largest changes occurred in Australasia, Tropical Latin America, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. With a logarithmic unit increase in temperature variability, the overall global meningitis risk increases by 4.8 %. Australasia, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and High-income North America are the most at-risk regions. Higher statistical differences were identified in males, children, and the elderly population. Compared to high-emission (SSP585) scenario, we predicted a median reduction of 85.8 % in meningitis incidence globally under the low-emission (SSP126) climate change scenario by 2100. Conclusion: Our study provides evidence for temperature variability being in association with meningitis incidence, which suggests that global actions are urgently needed to address climate change and to prevent meningitis occurrence.
AB - Background: Meningitis can cause devastating epidemics and is susceptible to climate change. It is unclear how temperature variability, an indicator of climate change, is associated with meningitis incidence. Methods: We used global meningitis incidence data along with meteorological and demographic data over 1990–2019 to identify the association between temperature variability and meningitis. We also employed future (2020–2100) climate data to predict meningitis incidence under different emission levels (SSPs: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). Results: We found that the mean temperature variability increased by almost 3 folds in the past 30 years. The largest changes occurred in Australasia, Tropical Latin America, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. With a logarithmic unit increase in temperature variability, the overall global meningitis risk increases by 4.8 %. Australasia, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and High-income North America are the most at-risk regions. Higher statistical differences were identified in males, children, and the elderly population. Compared to high-emission (SSP585) scenario, we predicted a median reduction of 85.8 % in meningitis incidence globally under the low-emission (SSP126) climate change scenario by 2100. Conclusion: Our study provides evidence for temperature variability being in association with meningitis incidence, which suggests that global actions are urgently needed to address climate change and to prevent meningitis occurrence.
KW - Climate Change
KW - GBD
KW - Meningitis
KW - Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
KW - Temperature variability
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U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107649
DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107649
M3 - Article
C2 - 36470121
AN - SCOPUS:85143486219
SN - 0160-4120
VL - 171
JO - Environment international
JF - Environment international
M1 - 107649
ER -