@article{f34cd5e65b214923a1f4ab75d1f91586,
title = "A scenario modeling pipeline for COVID-19 emergency planning",
abstract = "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused strain on health systems worldwide due to its high mortality rate and the large portion of cases requiring critical care and mechanical ventilation. During these uncertain times, public health decision makers, from city health departments to federal agencies, sought the use of epidemiological models for decision support in allocating resources, developing non-pharmaceutical interventions, and characterizing the dynamics of COVID-19 in their jurisdictions. In response, we developed a flexible scenario modeling pipeline that could quickly tailor models for decision makers seeking to compare projections of epidemic trajectories and healthcare impacts from multiple intervention scenarios in different locations. Here, we present the components and configurable features of the COVID Scenario Pipeline, with a vignette detailing its current use. We also present model limitations and active areas of development to meet ever-changing decision maker needs.",
author = "Lemaitre, {Joseph C.} and Grantz, {Kyra H.} and Joshua Kaminsky and Meredith, {Hannah R.} and Truelove, {Shaun A.} and Lauer, {Stephen A.} and Keegan, {Lindsay T.} and Sam Shah and Josh Wills and Kathryn Kaminsky and Javier Perez-Saez and Justin Lessler and Lee, {Elizabeth C.}",
note = "Funding Information: JCL, KHG, JK, HRM, SAT, SAL, LTK, JPS, JL, and ECL were supported by the State of California. JCL, JK, SAT, SAL, LTK, JPS, JL, and ECL were supported by the US Department of Health and Human Services and the US Department of Homeland Security. JCL acknowledges funds provided by the Swiss National Science Foundation (200021-172578) and the attached mobility Grant. SAT acknowledges funds provided by the US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (130492) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (126280). LTK acknowledges funds provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03) and the University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). This work was also supported with computing service credits from Amazon Web Services and more generally by the Johns Hopkins Health System and the Office of the Dean at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",
year = "2021",
month = dec,
doi = "10.1038/s41598-021-86811-0",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "11",
journal = "Scientific reports",
issn = "2045-2322",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "1",
}