@article{919738abe8d04ccd85d93aff06fc5814,
title = "A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010",
abstract = "Background: Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR). Methods. Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty. Results: An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfR cof less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission. Conclusions: The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and elimination decisions and can serve as a baseline assessment as the global health community looks ahead to the next series of milestones targeted at 2015.",
author = "Gething, {Peter W.} and Patil, {Anand P.} and Smith, {David L.} and Guerra, {Carlos A.} and Elyazar, {Iqbal R.F.} and Johnston, {Geoffrey L.} and Tatem, {Andrew J.} and Hay, {Simon I.}",
note = "Funding Information: The large global assembly of parasite prevalence data was critically dependent on the generous contributions of data made by a large number of people in the malaria research and control communities and these individuals are listed on the MAP website (http://www.map.ox.ac.uk/ acknowledgements/). Thanks also to Kevin Baird, Thomas Van Boeckel, Peter Horby, Viola Kirui, Bui Manh, Catherine Moyes, Will Temperley and Heiman Wertheim for contributing their expertise, and to Catherine Moyes, Rosalind Howes, Katherine Battle and Jennie Charlton for proof-reading. We thank Professor David Rogers for providing the Fourier-processed remote sensing data. SIH is funded by a Senior Research Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (#079091), which also supports PWG and CAG. APP is funded by a Biomedical Resources Grant from the Wellcome Trust (#091835). IRFE is funded by grants from the University of Oxford–Li Ka Shing Foundation Global Health Program and the Oxford Tropical Network. DLS and AJT are supported by a grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (#49446) (http://www.gatesfoundation.org). GLJ is supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship. PWG, APP, DLS, AJT and SIH also acknowledge support from the RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (http://www.fic.nih.gov). This work forms part of the output of the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP, http:// www.map.ox.ac.uk), principally funded by the Wellcome Trust, UK (http:// www.wellcome.ac.uk). MAP also acknowledges the support of the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (http://www.theglobalfund.org). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript 1Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK. 2Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA. 3Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA. 4Eijkman-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Jalan Diponegoro No. 69, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia. 5School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, 420 West 118th St, New York, USA. 6Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY 10032, USA. 7Department of Geography and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.",
year = "2011",
doi = "10.1186/1475-2875-10-378",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "10",
journal = "Malaria journal",
issn = "1475-2875",
publisher = "BioMed Central",
}